Announcing the bi-monthly monetary policy, Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das said the RBI's internal survey says manufacturing, services and infrastructure sector firms are optimistic of the business outlook.
International Monetary Fund Chief Economist Gita Gopinath tells Indivjal Dhasmana high-frequency indicators for the third quarter of 2021 indicate momentum in economic recovery in India.
Macroeconomic data announcements, global factors and trading activity of foreign investors would be the key triggers for the domestic stock markets this week, analysts said. Last week, the benchmark indices joined the broader market's party despite a host of negative global cues. In the broader market, the BSE midcap and smallcap gauges hit their all-time highs on Friday.
With the rapid evolution of channels like quick-commerce and the emergence of ONDC, the Indian retail industry is 'cautiously optimistic' for 2025, in which new-age technologies such as AI and automation will play a crucial role, driving efficiency and personalisation.
Gold seems to be losing its glitter in India due to a rise in prices. Demand in Q2CY24 was 149.7 tonnes - a 5 per cent drop compared to 158.1 tonnes in the same period last year, according to a report by the World Gold Council (WGC). Demand by value in April-June 2024 stood at Rs 93,850 crore, up by 14 per cent compared to Rs 82,530 crore in the same period last year.
The global economy is projected to expand by 4.2 per cent this year, but rising oil and commodity prices and European debt crisis could hurt the overall recovery, according to Paris-based think-tank OECD.
India decisively withstood global headwinds in 2023 and is likely to remain as the world's fastest-growing major economy on the back of growing demand, moderate inflation, stable interest rate regime and robust foreign exchange reserves. Despite widespread pessimism witnessed among the developed nations and the worsening geopolitical situation, India recorded a gross domestic product (GDP) expansion of 6.1 per cent in the March quarter. The growth moved up to 7.8 per cent in the June quarter and was 7.6 per cent in the September quarter. For the first six months of this fiscal, the growth was 7.7 per cent.
The Indian economy is recovering from the slowdown in momentum witnessed in the September quarter, driven by strong festival activity and a sustained upswing in rural demand, according to a Reserve Bank of India (RBI) bulletin released on Tuesday. An article on the 'State of the Economy' in the December bulletin noted that the global economy continues to exhibit resilience with steady growth and moderating inflation.
'The shifts in US involvement in global conflicts and geopolitical alliances could introduce uncertainties.'
India and China, besides some developed countries, may face economic downturn in the coming months, according to an analysis by OECD -- a grouping of mostly advanced nations.
S&P Global Ratings on Monday raised India's growth forecast for the current financial year to 6.4 per cent, from 6 per cent, saying that robust domestic momentum has offset headwinds from high food inflation and weak exports. The US-based rating agency, however, has cut growth estimates for the next fiscal (2024-25) to 6.4 per cent, as it expects growth to slow in the second half (October-March) of the current fiscal, on higher base impact and subdued global growth.
Outgoing Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das said on Tuesday that restoring inflation-growth balance is the most important task ahead of the central bank. Addressing a press conference on his last day as the central bank chief, Das said his successor will have to navigate the changing world order, effectively deal with cyber threats, and focus on harnessing new technologies.
Global trends, trading activity of foreign investors and domestic macroeconomic data announcements would dictate terms in the equity market in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Equity markets would remain closed on Wednesday for Gandhi Jayanti. "Looking ahead, it will be interesting to monitor Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) and their flow into India.
According to the BofA-ML Fund Manager Survey for January, asset allocators assigning more funds to equities than at any time since February 2011, while their confidence in the world's economic outlook has reached its most positive level since April 2010.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday slashed India's growth forecast for 2022-23 (FY23) by 80 basis points to 7.4 per cent, citing less favourable external conditions and rapid policy tightening by the central bank. In its update to the April World Economic Outlook, the IMF said that though a global recession in 2022 was ruled out with a growth estimate of 3.2 per cent, the balance of risks was squarely to the downside, driven by a wide range of factors that could adversely affect the global economic performance. "The risk of recession is particularly prominent in 2023, when in several economies growth is expected to bottom out, household savings accumulated during the pandemic will have declined, and even small shocks could cause economies to stall.
RBI's interest rate decision, quarterly earnings and global cues would be the major driving factors for equity markets this week, analysts said adding that the impact of the Union Budget could linger on this week. Trading activity of foreign investors will also be a key driver for the markets, experts noted. "US and India's manufacturing PMI for January to be released on Monday, will be the key macro data to watch out for.
'My life has been quite difficult. I felt I could see it in words. I thought if everyone else can write, then I can too.'
As the world climbs out of the deepest recession in recent history, Asia is leading the global recovery.
Bank stability and safety are still high on corporate and investor agendas, says a Global Finance study.
In a global economic outlook, released Wednesday afternoon, the Paris-based grouping warned: "With inflation remaining elevated and the recovery appearing to have taken root, there is a risk that price increases for inputs will flow through to second-round increases and that inflationary expectations will become destabilised.
'While we note the very strong cyclical recovery in the economy, we believe there is still uncertainty over medium-term prospects.'
Trump's sweeping tariffs and penalties on China-built ships have turned global shipping into the front line of economic war, observes Shyam G Menon.
Global rating agency Moody's on Monday raised India's growth forecast for 2024 calendar year to 6.8 per cent, from 6.1 per cent estimated earlier, on the back of 'stronger-than-expected' economic data of 2023 and fading global economic headwinds. India's real GDP expanded 8.4 per cent year-over-year in the fourth quarter of calendar year 2023, resulting in a 7.7 per cent growth for full-year 2023. Capital spending by the government and strong manufacturing activity have meaningfully contributed to the robust growth outcomes in 2023, Moody's Investors Service said.
Let's take a look at how India and world's major economies will perform in the next four years.
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday revised upwards the GDP growth projection for the current fiscal to 7.2 per cent from 7 per cent on rising private consumption and revival of demand in rural areas. Unveiling the bi-monthly monetary policy, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said estimates released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) placed India's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth at 8.2 per cent in 2023-24. "During 2024-25 so far, domestic economic activity has maintained resilience," he said, adding that manufacturing activity continues to gain ground on the back of strengthening domestic demand.
Acutely conscious that he's left with less than four years to create his legacy, Trump is undoubtedly a man in a hurry, observes Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
After raising interest rate by a cumulative 250 basis points in 11 months, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Thursday unexpectedly kept benchmark rate unchanged as global banking woes added uncertainty to the economic outlook. Five out of six members of MPC voted to remain focused on the withdrawal of accommodation to ensure inflation aligns with target while focusing on growth, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said on Thursday. The Monetary Policy Committee of the central bank decided to take a pause after a rate hike seen in previous six consecutive policies.
Fitch Ratings on Thursday slashed India's GDP growth projection for FY23 to 7 per cent, saying the economy is expected to slow against the backdrop of global economy, elevated inflation and high interest rate. In June, it had forecast 7.8 per cent growth for India. "We expect the economy to slow given the global economic backdrop, elevated inflation and tighter monetary policy. "We now expect the economy to grow 7 per cent in the financial year to end-March 2023 (FY23) from 7.8 per cent previously, with FY24 also slowing to 6.7 per cent from 7.4 per cent before," Fitch said in its September edition of the Global Economic Outlook.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday lowered India's economic growth projection for the current fiscal to 5.9 per cent from 6.1 per cent earlier. Yet India will continue to be the fastest-growing economy in the world. In its annual World Economic Outlook, IMF also lowered the forecast for 2024-25 fiscal (April 2024 to March 2025) to 6.3 per cent from the 6.8 per cent it had predicted in January this year. The growth rate of 5.9 per cent in the 2023-24 fiscal compares to an estimated 6.8 per cent in the previous year.
Global factors and FII activity will dictate trends in domestic equity markets this week while assembly poll results of Maharashtra and Jharkhand may impact stocks on Monday, say analysts. Stock markets witnessed a spirited recovery on Friday with benchmark Sensex and Nifty notching the best single-day gains in more than five months and offering relief after weeks of correction.
The downturn in commodities and oil refining, stemming from global economic slowdown, has affected profitability. This is expected to weaken the company's cash flow measures, S&P said.
Even as the high inflation figure for October has ruled out any possibility of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) monetary policy committee (MPC) in December, a rate cut in February also looks uncertain due to global uncertainties. Economists told Business Standard that unless domestic growth slows markedly, the outlook on rate cut remains unclear. India's headline inflation touched a 14-month high of 6.2 per cent in October, breaching the MPC's upper tolerance band of 6 per cent.
Former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's 1991 budget unshackled India's economy, significantly enhancing the economic prospects for hundreds of millions of Indians, first deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Gita Gopinath said on Friday.
Among the Sensex firms, JSW Steel, Tata Steel, Tech Mahindra, Infosys, Wipro, Tata Consultancy Services, Nestle, HCL Technologies, HDFC Bank and Maruti were the major laggards. IndusInd Bank, ITC, Bharti Airtel and State Bank of India were among the winners.
S&P has maintained a stable outlook on the basis of their expectation that over the next two years the growth will remain strong and India will maintain its sound net external position and fiscal deficit will remain elevated but broadly in line with their forecast.
Market downturns or regulatory shifts can reduce liquidity, making it harder to buy or sell assets when needed.
Returns from the yellow metal may be subdued, as focus returns to equities.
The second wave of COVID-19 may have a more lasting damage on the Indian economy and exports will once again be the foundation for recovery, Moody's Analytics said on Monday. In its report titled 'APAC Economic Outlook: The Delta Roadblock', Moody's Analytics said social distancing is weighing on the current quarter, but economic recovery will resume by the year-end. The Delta variant of COVID-19 is among factors now adversely affecting economies of the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region, but the economic hit from the current round of movement restrictions in the region will not be as severe as the recessions in the second quarter of last year.
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